WORLD HEALTH PREDICTIONS

Introduction:

It is estimated that in the upcoming 25 years, the deaths due to AIDS is going to be twice as much as it is at present and that smoking would be one of the leading causes of deaths accounting for one-tenth of all the worldwide deaths. Apart from these things, there is good news also. It is hinted that the poverty of the world would diminish by a substantial amount and that people would be wealthier and would live for a longer period. Death due to infections would be negligible.

Health Forecast:
 
A comprehensive analysis with regards the suffering and the death of people in the year 2030 is made by the scientists of the World Health Organization. They have approximated that the death risk of children under the age of 5 would decrease by as much as 50%. It is estimated that cigarettes alone would be the cause of deaths of more than half of the current population by the year 2030. In addition, depression would be the second killer after AIDS as a form of draining sickness. Many people are questioning the validity of such predictions. Health predictions were firstly done by the World Health Organization in the year 1996, but proved to be incorrect in many measures. The most noticeable difference in the predictions turned out to be a substantial difference between the prediction and the actual cases of AIDS and Tuberculosis. While more AIDS cases had cropped up, the number of people suffering from tuberculosis dropped considerably. In order to make the forecasts much relevant, the team added a substantial amount of illness and death figures as compared to 1996. In addition, a model was applied based on the changing of incidents and on the growth of the population and the ageing in the upcoming decades as also the smoking and obesity trends.

Miscellaneous:

Health experts have predicted that the incidence of AIDS deaths would increase from 2.8 million fatalities in the year 2002 to about 6.5 million in the year 2030. This would be surpassed only by tobacco related fatalities which is estimated to grow from 5.4 million in the year 2005 to about 8.3 million in the year 2030.